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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Washington Commanders 4th & 2 at the 65

Washington Commanders 17 – Denver Broncos 20

What Actually Happened

(8:48) 10-T.Way punts 45 yards to DEN 20, Center-45-Z.Triner, fair catch by 19-M.Mims. ** Injury Update: WAS-35-P.Butler has returned to the game.

The Three Options

GO -0.31 EP
Model's Pick
  • 61% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 63, worth +1.81 EP
  • 39% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 65, worth -3.67 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (82 yards).

PUNT -1.08 EP
What Happened
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 23, worth -1.08 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.77 EP