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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Denver Broncos 4th & 4 at the 47

Denver Broncos 20 – Washington Commanders 17

What Actually Happened

(4:52) 16-J.Crawshaw punts 47 yards to end zone, Center-48-M.Fraboni, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO +0.44 EP
Model's Pick
  • 51% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 43, worth +2.96 EP
  • 49% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 47, worth -2.14 EP
KICK -0.89 EP
  • 33% chance to make a 64-yard field goal: 3 points, then Washington Commanders takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.87 EP
  • 67% chance to miss: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 49, worth -2.26 EP
PUNT -0.33 EP
What Happened
  • Washington Commanders would take over around their own 13, worth -0.33 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.77 EP