4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Washington Commanders 4th & 1 at the 65

Washington Commanders 17 – Denver Broncos 20

What Actually Happened

(2:17) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 26-J.McNichols up the middle to WAS 37 for 2 yards (15-N.Bonitto).

The Three Options

GO +0.25 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 72% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 64, worth +1.41 EP
  • 28% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 65, worth -2.70 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (82 yards).

PUNT -0.72 EP
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 23, worth -0.72 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model