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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Denver Broncos 4th & 4 at the 83

Denver Broncos 3 – Washington Commanders 0

What Actually Happened

(3:04) 16-J.Crawshaw punts 41 yards to WAS 42, Center-48-M.Fraboni, fair catch by 83-J.Lane.

The Three Options

GO -2.00 EP
Model's Pick
  • 55% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 79, worth +0.50 EP
  • 45% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 83, worth -5.08 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (100 yards).

PUNT -2.38 EP
What Happened
  • Washington Commanders would take over around their own 41, worth -2.38 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.38 EP