4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Green Bay Packers 4th & 3 at the 22

Green Bay Packers 3 – Detroit Lions 0

What Actually Happened

(14:25) 10-J.Love pass deep left to 13-D.Wicks for 22 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

The Three Options

GO +1.86 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 52% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 19, worth +4.56 EP
  • 48% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 22, worth -1.06 EP
KICK +1.06 EP
  • 91% chance to make a 39-yard field goal: 3 points, then Detroit Lions takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.33 EP
  • 9% chance to miss: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 32, worth -1.84 EP
PUNT -0.26 EP
  • Detroit Lions would take over around their own 11, worth -0.26 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model