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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Green Bay Packers 4th & 1 at the 2

Green Bay Packers 10 – Detroit Lions 7

What Actually Happened

(2:16) (Shotgun) 10-J.Love pass short left to 87-R.Doubs for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

The Three Options

GO +4.24 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 67% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 1, worth +6.42 EP
  • 33% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 2, worth -0.24 EP
KICK +1.29 EP
  • 99% chance to make a 19-yard field goal: 3 points, then Detroit Lions takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.31 EP
  • 1% chance to miss: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 21, worth -0.99 EP
PUNT -0.55 EP
  • Detroit Lions would take over around their own 11, worth -0.55 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model