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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Green Bay Packers 4th & 10 at the 27

Green Bay Packers 0 – Detroit Lions 0

What Actually Happened

(9:17) 17-B.McManus 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-M.Orzech, Holder-19-D.Whelan.

The Three Options

GO +0.58 EP
  • 33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 17, worth +4.73 EP
  • 67% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 27, worth -1.46 EP
KICK +0.74 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 86% chance to make a 44-yard field goal: 3 points, then Detroit Lions takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.25 EP
  • 14% chance to miss: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 37, worth -2.37 EP
PUNT -0.36 EP
  • Detroit Lions would take over around their own 11, worth -0.36 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model