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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Green Bay Packers 4th & 4 at the 72

Green Bay Packers 31 – Detroit Lions 21

What Actually Happened

(9:13) 19-D.Whelan punts 72 yards to end zone, Center-42-M.Orzech, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -1.33 EP
Model's Pick
  • 54% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 68, worth +1.16 EP
  • 46% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 72, worth -4.24 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (89 yards).

PUNT -1.48 EP
What Happened
  • Detroit Lions would take over around their own 30, worth -1.48 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model