Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Detroit Lions 4th & 8 at the 63

Detroit Lions 0 – Green Bay Packers 3

(8:27) 3-J.Fox punts 46 yards to GB 17, Center-49-H.Hatten, fair catch by 87-R.Doubs.

The Three Options

GO -1.05 EP

39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 55, worth +2.65 EP
61% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 63, worth -3.41 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (80 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model