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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Green Bay Packers 4th & 5 at the 78

Green Bay Packers 3 – Detroit Lions 0

What Actually Happened

(6:47) 19-D.Whelan punts 62 yards to DET 16, Center-42-M.Orzech. 85-T.Kennedy to DET 37 for 21 yards (33-E.Williams; 54-K.Welch).

The Three Options

GO -2.03 EP
Model's Pick
  • 51% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 73, worth +0.57 EP
  • 49% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 78, worth -4.71 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (95 yards).

PUNT -2.18 EP
What Happened
  • Detroit Lions would take over around their own 35, worth -2.18 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model