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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Houston Texans 4th & 7 at the 80

Houston Texans 3 – Indianapolis Colts 0

What Actually Happened

(14:22) 6-T.Townsend punts 52 yards to IND 28, Center-40-A.Brinkman. 6-A.Gould pushed ob at IND 37 for 9 yards (87-C.Stover).

The Three Options

GO -2.47 EP
  • 43% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 73, worth +0.38 EP
  • 57% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 80, worth -4.66 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (97 yards).

PUNT -2.38 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 37, worth -2.38 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model