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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 1 at the 9

Indianapolis Colts 0 – Houston Texans 3

What Actually Happened

(10:19) Direct snap to 84-T.Warren. 84-T.Warren FUMBLES (Aborted) at HOU 10, recovered by IND-28-J.Taylor at HOU 11. 28-J.Taylor to HOU 11 for no gain (95-D.Barnett, 4-K.Lassiter).

The Three Options

GO +3.67 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 67% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 8, worth +5.44 EP
  • 33% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 9, worth +0.13 EP
KICK +1.81 EP
  • 98% chance to make a 26-yard field goal: 3 points, then Houston Texans takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.88 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Houston Texans takes over around their own 21, worth -0.68 EP
PUNT +0.01 EP
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 11, worth +0.01 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model