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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 15 at the 47

Indianapolis Colts 6 – Houston Texans 10

What Actually Happened

(2:00) 8-R.Sanchez punts 47 yards to end zone, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -0.53 EP
  • 28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 32, worth +3.82 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 47, worth -2.21 EP
KICK -0.48 EP
  • 44% chance to make a 64-yard field goal: 3 points, then Houston Texans takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.85 EP
  • 56% chance to miss: Houston Texans takes over around their own 49, worth -2.33 EP
PUNT -0.29 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 13, worth -0.29 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model