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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Houston Texans 4th & 2 at the 47

Houston Texans 10 – Indianapolis Colts 6

What Actually Happened

(:02) (Shotgun) 7-C.Stroud pass incomplete deep right (14-A.Pierce).

The Three Options

GO +0.28 EP
What Happened
  • 60% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 45, worth +0.73 EP
  • 40% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 47, worth -0.40 EP
KICK +1.05 EP
Model's Pick
  • 44% chance to make a 64-yard field goal: 3 points, then Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.96 EP
  • 56% chance to miss: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 49, worth -0.47 EP
PUNT +0.01 EP
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 13, worth +0.01 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.77 EP