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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 7 at the 24

Indianapolis Colts 13 – Houston Texans 20

What Actually Happened

(8:44) 12-M.Badgley 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-8-R.Sanchez.

The Three Options

GO +1.08 EP
  • 37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 17, worth +4.83 EP
  • 63% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 24, worth -1.09 EP
KICK +1.26 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 89% chance to make a 41-yard field goal: 3 points, then Houston Texans takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.60 EP
  • 11% chance to miss: Houston Texans takes over around their own 34, worth -1.59 EP
PUNT -0.36 EP
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 11, worth -0.36 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model