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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 9 at the 31

Indianapolis Colts 16 – Houston Texans 20

What Actually Happened

(1:49) (Shotgun) 17-D.Jones pass incomplete short right to 11-M.Pittman [51-W.Anderson].

The Three Options

GO +0.47 EP
What Happened
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 22, worth +3.35 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 31, worth -0.99 EP
KICK +1.35 EP
Model's Pick
  • 80% chance to make a 48-yard field goal: 3 points, then Houston Texans takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.01 EP
  • 20% chance to miss: Houston Texans takes over around their own 41, worth -1.37 EP
PUNT -0.37 EP
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 11, worth -0.37 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.88 EP