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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 10 at the 73

Indianapolis Colts 0 – Houston Texans 3

What Actually Happened

(5:48) 8-R.Sanchez punts 55 yards to HOU 18, Center-46-L.Rhodes. 14-J.Noel to HOU 32 for 14 yards (58-A.Ajiake; 85-A.Ogletree).

The Three Options

GO -1.66 EP
  • 37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 63, worth +2.22 EP
  • 63% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 73, worth -3.93 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (90 yards).

PUNT -0.45 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 31, worth -0.45 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model