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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Houston Texans 4th & 4 at the 62

Houston Texans 3 – Indianapolis Colts 0

What Actually Happened

(2:57) 6-T.Townsend punts 44 yards to IND 18, Center-40-A.Brinkman. 6-A.Gould to IND 23 for 5 yards (37-A.Speed).

The Three Options

GO -0.99 EP
Model's Pick
  • 50% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 58, worth +1.60 EP
  • 50% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 62, worth -3.63 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (79 yards).

PUNT -1.22 EP
What Happened
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 21, worth -1.22 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model