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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 16 at the 47

Kansas City Chiefs 14 – Dallas Cowboys 10

What Actually Happened

(6:10) 14-M.Araiza punts 32 yards to DAL 15, Center-41-J.Winchester, fair catch by 9-K.Turpin.

The Three Options

GO -0.74 EP
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 31, worth +3.73 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 47, worth -2.65 EP
KICK -0.90 EP
  • 44% chance to make a 64-yard field goal: 3 points, then Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.43 EP
  • 56% chance to miss: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 49, worth -2.76 EP
PUNT -0.47 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 13, worth -0.47 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model