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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 19 at the 52

Kansas City Chiefs 14 – Dallas Cowboys 17

What Actually Happened

(:18) 14-M.Araiza punts 38 yards to DAL 14, Center-41-J.Winchester, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -0.36 EP
  • 28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 33, worth +2.38 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 52, worth -1.42 EP
KICK -0.00 EP
Model's Pick
  • 32% chance to make a 69-yard field goal: 3 points, then Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.60 EP
  • 68% chance to miss: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 49, worth -1.24 EP
PUNT -0.06 EP
What Happened
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 15, worth -0.06 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model