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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 1 at the 54

Kansas City Chiefs 14 – Dallas Cowboys 17

What Actually Happened

(8:50) (Shotgun) 60-H.Nourzad reported in as eligible. 15-P.Mahomes pass short right to 12-J.Wiley to 50 for 4 yards (59-K.Murray).

The Three Options

GO +1.14 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 74% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 53, worth +2.57 EP
  • 26% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 54, worth -3.03 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (71 yards).

PUNT -0.80 EP
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 16, worth -0.80 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model