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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 8 at the 59

Kansas City Chiefs 21 – Dallas Cowboys 28

What Actually Happened

(9:35) 14-M.Araiza punts 59 yards to end zone, Center-41-J.Winchester, Touchback. PENALTY on DAL-29-C.Goodwin, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at DAL 20.

The Three Options

GO -0.54 EP
Model's Pick
  • 42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 51, worth +2.65 EP
  • 58% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 59, worth -2.86 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (76 yards).

PUNT -0.74 EP
What Happened
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 18, worth -0.74 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model