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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 2 at the 2

Kansas City Chiefs 7 – Dallas Cowboys 7

What Actually Happened

(:05) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short middle to 87-T.Kelce for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

The Three Options

GO +3.17 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 58% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.29 EP
  • 42% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 2, worth +0.25 EP
KICK +1.30 EP
  • 99% chance to make a 19-yard field goal: 3 points, then Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.33 EP
  • 1% chance to miss: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 21, worth -0.94 EP
PUNT -0.25 EP
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 11, worth -0.25 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model