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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Carolina Panthers 4th & 10 at the 48

Carolina Panthers 17 – Los Angeles Rams 21

What Actually Happened

(:21) 6-S.Martin punts 39 yards to LA 9, Center-44-J.Jansen, downed by CAR-87-B.Tremayne.

The Three Options

GO -0.36 EP
  • 31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 38, worth +2.03 EP
  • 69% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 48, worth -1.43 EP
KICK +0.07 EP
Model's Pick
  • 39% chance to make a 65-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.48 EP
  • 61% chance to miss: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 49, worth -1.48 EP
PUNT -0.09 EP
What Happened
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 14, worth -0.09 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model