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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Carolina Panthers 4th & 3 at the 33

Carolina Panthers 17 – Los Angeles Rams 21

What Actually Happened

(8:54) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young pass deep right to 18-J.Coker for 33 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

The Three Options

GO +1.23 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 48% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 30, worth +4.04 EP
  • 52% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 33, worth -1.39 EP
KICK +0.82 EP
  • 76% chance to make a 50-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.76 EP
  • 24% chance to miss: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 43, worth -2.11 EP
PUNT +0.06 EP
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 11, worth +0.06 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model