Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 13 at the 75

Los Angeles Rams 21 – Carolina Panthers 24

What Actually Happened

(7:12) 42-E.Evans punts 56 yards to CAR 19, Center-44-J.McQuaide. 23-T.Etienne pushed ob at LA 46 for 35 yards (20-R.Rivers). PENALTY on CAR-48-T.Incoom, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at CAR 34.

The Three Options

GO -2.19 EP

36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 62, worth +1.85 EP
64% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 75, worth -4.46 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (92 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model