4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Carolina Panthers 4th & 20 at the 39

Carolina Panthers 24 – Los Angeles Rams 21

What Actually Happened

(13:41) 6-S.Martin punts 28 yards to LA 11, Center-44-J.Jansen, fair catch by 19-X.Smith.

The Three Options

GO -0.20 EP
  • 21% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 19, worth +4.81 EP
  • 79% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 39, worth -1.54 EP
KICK +0.45 EP
Model's Pick
  • 62% chance to make a 56-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.10 EP
  • 38% chance to miss: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 48, worth -2.28 EP
PUNT +0.33 EP
What Happened
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 11, worth +0.33 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model