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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 1 at the 4

Minnesota Vikings 0 – Seattle Seahawks 3

What Actually Happened

(3:14) 12-M.Brosmer pass short right INTERCEPTED by 13-E.Jones [0-D.Lawrence] at SEA 15. 13-E.Jones for 85 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

The Three Options

GO +3.64 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 62% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 3, worth +6.04 EP
  • 38% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 4, worth -0.35 EP
KICK +1.38 EP
  • 98% chance to make a 21-yard field goal: 3 points, then Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.42 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 21, worth -0.93 EP
PUNT -0.54 EP
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 11, worth -0.54 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model