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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 12 at the 60

Minnesota Vikings 0 – Seattle Seahawks 0

What Actually Happened

(11:18) 17-R.Wright punts 56 yards to SEA 4, Center-42-A.DePaola, fair catch by 22-R.Shaheed.

The Three Options

GO -1.81 EP
  • 29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 48, worth +2.59 EP
  • 71% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 60, worth -3.64 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (77 yards).

PUNT -0.98 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 19, worth -0.98 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model