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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 5 at the 53

Seattle Seahawks 19 – Minnesota Vikings 0

What Actually Happened

(13:34) 4-M.Dickson punts 53 yards to end zone, Center-41-C.Stoll, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -0.13 EP
Model's Pick
  • 48% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 48, worth +2.79 EP
  • 52% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 53, worth -2.82 EP
KICK -1.41 EP
  • 28% chance to make a 70-yard field goal: 3 points, then Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.74 EP
  • 72% chance to miss: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 49, worth -2.66 EP
PUNT -0.56 EP
What Happened
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 15, worth -0.56 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.42 EP