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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 1 at the 23

Seattle Seahawks 19 – Minnesota Vikings 0

What Actually Happened

(10:40) (Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold pass short left to 88-A.Barner to MIN 21 for 2 yards (7-B.Murphy).

The Three Options

GO +2.75 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 70% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 22, worth +4.41 EP
  • 30% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 23, worth -1.15 EP
KICK +1.18 EP
  • 90% chance to make a 40-yard field goal: 3 points, then Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.50 EP
  • 10% chance to miss: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 33, worth -1.72 EP
PUNT -0.44 EP
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 11, worth -0.44 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model