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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 13 at the 40

Minnesota Vikings 0 – Seattle Seahawks 26

What Actually Happened

(3:15) (Shotgun) 12-M.Brosmer sacked at SEA 47 for -7 yards (sack split by 42-D.Thomas and 7-U.Nwosu).

The Three Options

GO -0.07 EP
What Happened
  • 26% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 27, worth +3.76 EP
  • 74% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 40, worth -1.43 EP
KICK +0.33 EP
Model's Pick
  • 61% chance to make a 57-yard field goal: 3 points, then Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.85 EP
  • 39% chance to miss: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 49, worth -2.00 EP
PUNT -0.41 EP
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 11, worth -0.41 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.40 EP