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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 9 at the 51

San Francisco 49ers 0 – Cleveland Browns 0

What Actually Happened

(13:19) 7-T.Morstead punts 38 yards to CLE 13, Center-46-J.Weeks, fair catch by 84-G.Larvadain.

The Three Options

GO -1.10 EP
  • 35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 42, worth +2.92 EP
  • 65% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 51, worth -3.28 EP
KICK -2.46 EP
  • 19% chance to make a 68-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +0.98 EP
  • 81% chance to miss: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 49, worth -3.29 EP
PUNT -1.04 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 14, worth -1.04 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model