Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 13 at the 59

San Francisco 49ers 10 – Cleveland Browns 8

(9:14) 7-T.Morstead punts 36 yards to CLE 23, Center-46-J.Weeks. 84-G.Larvadain MUFFS catch, and recovers at CLE 24.

The Three Options

GO -1.31 EP

31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 46, worth +2.93 EP
69% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 59, worth -3.19 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (76 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model