4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Cleveland Browns 4th & 1 at the 20

Cleveland Browns 0 – San Francisco 49ers 7

What Actually Happened

(3:02) 72-K.Leveston reported in as eligible. 10-Q.Judkins right guard to SF 21 for -1 yards (6-M.Mustapha, 92-J.Elliott).

The Three Options

GO +3.19 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 65% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 19, worth +4.97 EP
  • 35% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 20, worth -0.11 EP
KICK +1.96 EP
  • 90% chance to make a 37-yard field goal: 3 points, then San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.26 EP
  • 10% chance to miss: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 30, worth -0.74 EP
PUNT +0.57 EP
  • San Francisco 49ers would take over around their own 11, worth +0.57 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model