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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 9 at the 78

San Francisco 49ers 7 – Cleveland Browns 0

What Actually Happened

(1:38) 7-T.Morstead punts 42 yards to CLE 36, Center-46-J.Weeks. 84-G.Larvadain to CLE 38 for 2 yards (31-I.Guerendo; 28-D.Luter). FUMBLES (31-I.Guerendo), and recovers at CLE 39.

The Three Options

GO -2.54 EP
  • 38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 69, worth +0.73 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 78, worth -4.59 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (95 yards).

PUNT -2.29 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 35, worth -2.29 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model