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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 1 at the 44

Indianapolis Colts 10 – Jacksonville Jaguars 21

What Actually Happened

(1:50) (Shotgun) 28-J.Taylor up the middle to JAX 45 for -1 yards (44-T.Walker).

The Three Options

GO +1.50 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 72% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 43, worth +2.95 EP
  • 28% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 44, worth -2.24 EP
KICK -0.70 EP
  • 46% chance to make a 61-yard field goal: 3 points, then Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.53 EP
  • 54% chance to miss: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 49, worth -2.60 EP
PUNT -0.66 EP
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 12, worth -0.66 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model