Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 10 at the 78

Jacksonville Jaguars 28 – Indianapolis Colts 13

(9:02) 9-L.Cooke punts 47 yards to IND 31, Center-46-R.Matiscik, fair catch by 6-A.Gould. ** Injury Update: IND-6-A.Gould has returned to the game.

The Three Options

GO -2.27 EP

37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 68, worth +1.59 EP
63% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 78, worth -4.51 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (95 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model