4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 1 at the 9

Jacksonville Jaguars 31 – Indianapolis Colts 13

What Actually Happened

(7:08) (Shotgun) 64-W.Milum reported in as eligible. Direct snap to 1-T.Etienne. 1-T.Etienne up the middle to IND 9 for no gain (44-Z.Franklin).

The Three Options

GO +3.35 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 66% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 8, worth +5.22 EP
  • 34% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 9, worth -0.26 EP
KICK +1.51 EP
  • 97% chance to make a 26-yard field goal: 3 points, then Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.58 EP
  • 3% chance to miss: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 21, worth -1.02 EP
PUNT -0.38 EP
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 11, worth -0.38 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model