4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 8 at the 29

Jacksonville Jaguars 33 – Indianapolis Colts 13

What Actually Happened

(4:45) 39-C.Little 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-R.Matiscik, Holder-9-L.Cooke.

The Three Options

GO +0.74 EP
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 21, worth +4.24 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 29, worth -1.08 EP
KICK +1.19 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 81% chance to make a 46-yard field goal: 3 points, then Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.84 EP
  • 19% chance to miss: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 39, worth -1.55 EP
PUNT -0.24 EP
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 11, worth -0.24 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model