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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 6 at the 45

Los Angeles Rams 31 – Arizona Cardinals 10

What Actually Happened

(4:23) 42-E.Evans punts 45 yards to end zone, Center-44-J.McQuaide, Touchback. PENALTY on ARI-13-K.Clark, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at ARI 20.

The Three Options

GO +0.17 EP
Model's Pick
  • 45% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 39, worth +3.36 EP
  • 55% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 45, worth -2.38 EP
KICK -0.69 EP
  • 50% chance to make a 62-yard field goal: 3 points, then Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.49 EP
  • 50% chance to miss: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 49, worth -2.83 EP
PUNT -0.40 EP
What Happened
  • Arizona Cardinals would take over around their own 12, worth -0.40 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.58 EP