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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 8 at the 59

Los Angeles Rams 31 – Arizona Cardinals 10

What Actually Happened

(1:15) 42-E.Evans punts 39 yards to ARI 20, Center-44-J.McQuaide, downed by LA-48-O.Speights.

The Three Options

GO -0.71 EP
Model's Pick
  • 42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 51, worth +2.68 EP
  • 58% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 59, worth -3.11 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (76 yards).

PUNT -0.84 EP
What Happened
  • Arizona Cardinals would take over around their own 18, worth -0.84 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model