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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 10 at the 16

Arizona Cardinals 17 – Los Angeles Rams 45

What Actually Happened

(5:28) (Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett pass incomplete short left to 22-M.Carter (51-T.Reeder).

The Three Options

GO +1.31 EP
What Happened
  • 28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 6, worth +5.39 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 16, worth -0.31 EP
KICK +1.75 EP
Model's Pick
  • 95% chance to make a 33-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.88 EP
  • 5% chance to miss: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 26, worth -0.86 EP
PUNT -0.09 EP
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 11, worth -0.09 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.43 EP