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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 8 at the 8

Los Angeles Rams 0 – Arizona Cardinals 7

What Actually Happened

(7:43) 92-H.Mevis 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.McQuaide, Holder-42-E.Evans.

The Three Options

GO +1.73 EP
Model's Pick
  • 35% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.24 EP
  • 65% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 8, worth -0.19 EP
KICK +1.23 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 25-yard field goal: 3 points, then Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.28 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 21, worth -0.99 EP
PUNT -0.32 EP
  • Arizona Cardinals would take over around their own 11, worth -0.32 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.49 EP