Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 12 at the 71

Arizona Cardinals 7 – Los Angeles Rams 3

(5:08) 39-M.Haack punts 57 yards to LA 14, Center-46-A.Brewer. 19-X.Smith to LA 26 for 12 yards (44-O.Pappoe).

The Three Options

GO -1.91 EP

32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 59, worth +2.37 EP
68% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 71, worth -3.92 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (88 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model