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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 10 at the 10

Pittsburgh Steelers 17 – Baltimore Ravens 9

What Actually Happened

(11:01) 9-C.Boswell 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Kuntz, Holder-3-C.Waitman.

The Three Options

GO +1.46 EP
Model's Pick
  • 28% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.44 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 10, worth -0.05 EP
KICK +1.42 EP
What Happened
  • 97% chance to make a 27-yard field goal: 3 points, then Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.49 EP
  • 3% chance to miss: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 21, worth -0.83 EP
PUNT -0.15 EP
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 11, worth -0.15 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model