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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 4 at the 18

Baltimore Ravens 0 – Pittsburgh Steelers 0

What Actually Happened

(11:02) 33-T.Loop 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-N.Moore, Holder-11-J.Stout.

The Three Options

GO +2.40 EP
Model's Pick
  • 43% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 14, worth +5.28 EP
  • 57% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 18, worth +0.24 EP
KICK +2.26 EP
What Happened
  • 93% chance to make a 35-yard field goal: 3 points, then Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.46 EP
  • 7% chance to miss: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 28, worth -0.49 EP
PUNT +0.80 EP
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 11, worth +0.80 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model