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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 8 at the 18

Baltimore Ravens 19 – Pittsburgh Steelers 27

What Actually Happened

(7:15) 33-T.Loop 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-N.Moore, Holder-11-J.Stout.

The Three Options

GO +1.03 EP
  • 32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 10, worth +5.18 EP
  • 68% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 18, worth -0.92 EP
KICK +1.29 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 93% chance to make a 35-yard field goal: 3 points, then Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.48 EP
  • 7% chance to miss: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 28, worth -1.46 EP
PUNT -0.50 EP
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.50 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model