Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 7 at the 89

Pittsburgh Steelers 27 – Baltimore Ravens 22

What Actually Happened

(2:08) 3-C.Waitman punts 53 yards to BAL 36, Center-46-C.Kuntz. 83-L.Wester to BAL 44 for 8 yards (41-P.Wilson). PENALTY on BAL-39-K.Jackson, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at BAL 36.

The Three Options

GO -2.32 EP

42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 82, worth +0.57 EP
58% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 89, worth -4.44 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (106 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model