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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 2 at the 66

Baltimore Ravens 22 – Pittsburgh Steelers 27

What Actually Happened

(:47) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass short middle to 80-I.Likely to BAL 42 for 8 yards (41-P.Wilson).

The Three Options

GO -0.05 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 61% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 64, worth +0.63 EP
  • 39% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 66, worth -1.09 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (83 yards).

PUNT -0.19 EP
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 24, worth -0.19 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model